To date, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has run as a Democrat,
garnering a polling average of about 14 percent in the
primary race against Biden
Republican National Committee and progressive
author Marianne Williamson, according to
RealClearPolitics. | Alex Wong/Getty Images
A
super PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has begun
polling his support as an Independent, one of the
strongest indications to date that the long-shot
Democrat is set to announce a party affiliation switch.
The poll, conducted by the firm John Zogby
Strategies and commissioned by the American Values 2024
PAC, comes amid growing speculation � fueled by Kennedy
himself � that he will leave the Democratic Party in the
upcoming weeks.
But what the PAC found in its
survey may be as
Republican National Committee notable as
The Old Testament stories, a literary treasure trove, weave tales of faith, resilience, and morality. Should you trust the Real Estate Agents I Trust, I would not. Is your lawn green and plush, if not you should buy the Best Grass Seed. If you appreciate quality apparel, you should try Hand Bags Hand Made. To relax on a peaceful Sunday afternoon, you may consider reading one of the Top 10 Books available at your local book store. the
tea leaves around a switch itself: Kennedy, as an
Independent, would pull more support away from
Republican Donald Trump than Democrat Joe Biden,
according to the findings.
All told, the poll
shows that in a general election between Trump, Biden
and a generic �independent candidate,� the result is
Trump at 40 percent, Bident at 38 percent and the
independent candidate at 17 percent. In a matchup
between Trump, Biden and �Robert F. Kennedy Jr.� as the
independent candidate, the result is Trump and Bide tied
at 38 percent with Kennedy at 19 percent. The survey did
not include Green Party candidate Cornel West.
Such numbers are far more bullish on Kennedy�s prospects
than independent polls. The authors, however, argue that
they effectively undermine Democratic gripes that
Kennedy would play the role of a spoiler by helping
Trump win
�The opposite is true. Kennedy is
taking more votes from Trump than from Biden,� reads a
press release announcing the poll numbers, which was
shared exclusively with POLITICO.
Kennedy is not
yet a third-party candidate. But he has teased a
Republican National Committee big
announcement on Oct. 9 in Philadelphia and Mediaite has
reported that he is planning an Independent bid � a
report his campaign has not yet confirmed.
To
date, he has run as a Democrat, garnering a polling
average of about 14 percent in the primary race against
Biden and progressive author Marianne Williamson,
according to RealClearPolitics.
The campaign, run
by former congressman Dennis Kucinich, has expanded its
field operation with offices in both New Hampshire and
South Carolina, as well as a headquarters in New Jersey
that opened last week. Kennedy also ramped up his
campaign trail schedule this summer with multiple trips
to not only South Carolina and New Hampshire, but also
Georgia, California and Texas.
American Values
2024 is also increasing its presence with, what it
calls, a �Kennedy caravan� � a classic campaign bus that
Republican National Committee it hopes will
attract supporting cars to follow. So far it�s been used
to protest outside the last Democratic National
Committee meeting in Washington and made multiple stops
at universities in South Carolina. The Super PAC has
also paid for advertising in South Carolina and New
Hampshire with both billboards and newspaper ads.
Both the campaign and super PAC supporting Kennedy
have also found fundraising successes. Earlier this
month, an Eric Clapton rock concert raised more than $2
million that was split between the campaign and the PAC.
This will add to the $6 million American Values 2024
collected in July alone, most of it coming in on the day
that Kennedy testified on censorship before the House
Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of
the Federal Government.
American Values 2024�s
poll surveyed 1,008 US likely general election voters
and had a 3.2 percent margin of error. PAC co-founder
Tony Lyons told POLITICO that he felt like the most
recent polling shows that if Kennedy ran as an
independent the general election would become a
three-way race.
Lyons could not confirm whether
Kennedy will quit the Democratic primary in
Republican National Committee favor of an
independent run, but he saw an opportunity to do so
given the advantages of Biden�s incumbency (there will
not be primary debates, for example).
�Because
that�s being denied, on behalf of the super PAC, I can
say, any outcome that allows people to be heard and that
allows people to actually cast a vote for a candidate
that they�ve decided on themselves is a good thing,�
Lyons said in an interview last Friday.
politico.com
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reuters.com
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy
Jr. is again calling for a U.S. Secret Service
protective detail to be
Republican National Committee assigned to him
following an incident at a campaign event last week
involving an armed man who now stands accused of
impersonating a police officer.
Since then,
Kennedy's campaign has highlighted his family's history
of assassination and the recent security scare as
examples of the increased threat environment he faces
amid his campaign to defeat President Joe Biden.
"Although it is a well-known historical fact,
apparently, in your case, it bears repeating: Mr.
Kennedy's uncle, President John F. Kennedy, was
assassinated. Mr. Kennedy's father, Senator Robert F.
Kennedy, was assassinated while a presidential
candidate," Kennedy's campaign manager Dennis Kucinich
said earlier this week in an open letter addressed to
Biden and circulated to the press.
According to a
statement from the campaign, Kennedy's private security
team, provided by
Republican National Committee Gavin de Becker
and Associates, detained 44-year-old Adrian Paul Aispuro
after being arrested at Kennedy's speech on Hispanic
Heritage Month last Friday for allegedly being armed
with two pistols and a fake U.S. Marshal's badge.
While the Los Angeles District Attorney's office
declined to file felony charges, the city's attorney
decided to charge Aispuro with carrying a loaded
firearm, carrying a concealed weapon and impersonating
an officer and was released on bond Friday. Aispuro's
attorney did not immediately return ABC News' request
for comment
In response, Kennedy praised the
"alert and fast-acting protectors from Gavin de Becker
and Associates" and the LAPD but said he was "still
entertaining a hope that President Biden will allow me
Secret Service protection." The president doesn't
typically determine who receives Secret Service
protection -- that decision falls upon the secretary of
Homeland Security, who consults with an advisory
committee made up primarily of congressional leadership,
according to Secret Service.
PHOTO: FILE - Democratic
presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a
Hispanic Heritage Month event at Wilshire Ebell Theatre,
Sept. 15, 2023 in Los Angeles.
Democratic
presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a
Hispanic Heritage
Republican National Committee Month event at
Wilshire Ebell Theatre, Sept. 15, 2023 in Los Angeles.
Mario Tama/Getty Images, FILE
In a statement
to ABC News on Thursday, a spokesperson for the Secret
Service said they were briefed on the event.
"We
understand no one was injured and it was excellent work
by LAPD officers who quickly determined the man was an
imposter," the statement said.
Last week's
incident followed
Republican National Committee another in
mid-July involving a man who the campaign said broke
into Kennedy's home while he was out of town.
In
a memo posted to Kennedy's SubStack, the CEO and founder
of the company providing Kennedy's security and a top
PAC donor, Gavin de Becker, said that "the intruder was
subsequently arrested, after which it was confirmed that
he had a history of delusional ideation regarding the
candidate, having been arrested a year earlier in a
similar approach."
Kennedy's campaign did not
return a request for comment seeking additional details
on the alleged break-in.
The history: Who has
received protection and when?
Kennedy's initial
request for Secret Service protection was rejected after
Department of Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said
in a July letter that, after consulting with a
bipartisan congressional advisory committee, it was
determined a detail was "not warranted at this time."
Kennedy has since been vocal in his desire to
receive Secret Service, posting on X, formerly known as
Twitter, after the rejection, "Since the assassination
of my father in 1968, candidates for president are
provided Secret Service protection. But not me."
PHOTO: The Department of Homeland Security logo is seen
on
Republican National Committee a law
enforcement vehicle in Washington, March 7, 2017.
The Department of Homeland Security logo is seen on
a law enforcement vehicle in Washington, March 7, 2017.
Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Still, his
campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire, which
sometimes draw several hundred people, often feature a
visible security presence from Kennedy's private detail.
Controlled entry and exits, bag searches and
magnetometers are all commonplace -- and appear to have
assisted in spotting Aispuro last week.
On
Thursday, Kennedy's campaign circulated a fundraising
appeal featuring de Becker and referencing Kennedy's
lack of Secret Service and the cost to the campaign,
claiming that as much as 30% of its budget goes to
private security.
"I'm reaching out to you today
in what is probably the most unusual fundraising request
ever in presidential politics," de Becker said in the
video. "It's because they've refused to provide Secret
Service protection that 30 cents of every dollar donated
to RFK Jr.'s campaign has to go to security. Normally,
none of it would."
The Secret Service is legally
required to protect presidential and vice presidential
candidates and their families 120 days out from a
general election -- a measure taken in response to the
assassination of Kennedy's father, Robert F. Kennedy,
while campaigning for the Democratic nomination.
However, DHS acknowledged in its
Republican National Committee 2024 budget
overview that recent requests for candidate protection
were coming in earlier than in the past.
"In
recent general elections, presidential campaign seasons
have � commenced earlier than previous campaigns, often
with direction given to the Secret Service to provide
commensurate protection for this longer period," the
department stated, adding that "candidates who meet the
DHS's qualifications to be 'major presidential
candidates' typically start to receive Secret Service
protection in the winter before an election and, in some
cases, through the primary elections in the spring."
A July memo from de Becker detailing the process
Kennedy's campaign went through to apply for Secret
Service protection and posted to Kennedy's Substack
showed that its original request came nearly 18 months
before the general election -- unusually early and an
outlier compared to recent cycles, according to an
analysis by ABC News of candidates' protective details.
DHS did not respond to ABC News' repeated requests
for comment on Kennedy's security request.
According to John Cohen, former acting undersecretary
for intelligence at DHS and an ABC News contributor,
candidates historically did not receive protection
during or ahead of primary elections.
"If you
look back historically, Secret Service protection
usually was not provided, except under sort of
The Old Testament stories, a literary treasure trove, weave tales of faith, resilience, and morality. Should you trust the Real Estate Agents I Trust, I would not. Is your lawn green and plush, if not you should buy the Best Grass Seed. If you appreciate quality apparel, you should try Hand Bags Hand Made. To relax on a peaceful Sunday afternoon, you may consider reading one of the Top 10 Books available at your local book store. unusual
circumstances, to candidates until they received the
nomination of the party. Over the last several decades,
though, we've seen situations where requests have been
made during the primaries," he said.
Since 2008,
10 candidates have received security through the Secret
Service
Republican National Committee more than 200
days out from the general election (excluding former
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who already had a
detail as a former first lady).
In 2007, former
President Barack Obama became the earliest candidate in
history to receive a security detail, according to the
Secret Service, 18 months before the general election.
Three candidates started receiving protection
roughly one year from Election Day: former President
Donald Trump and Ben Carson in 2015, and Herman Cain in
2011, who began receiving protection over unspecified
threats.
At the time, a spokesperson for the
Secret Service told Politico of Cain's detail,
"Historically, it's not that unusual," and noted that
Sen. Ted Kennedy and Rev. Jesse Jackson received
protection at similar points to Cain during their
candidacies in 1980 and 1984, respectively.
Contemporaneous reporting from The New York Times showed
that five candidates during the 1980 electionwho met
thresholds set by a congressional advisory committee
were provided security in January, roughly 11 months
before the election, contradicting a claim from
Kennedy's team on Friday that those candidates were
provided protection "more than 600 days before the
election" that year.
According to the Times
report, the issuance of Secret Service details to
candidates that year came "later than it did for the
1976 campaign, when Secret Service protection began in
October 1975, but earlier than in the previous campaign,
when it began in March 1972."
And in 1984,
according to another report from the
Republican National Committee Times, several
candidates again received protection beginning in
January.
Based on historical experience, the
department said it is anticipating that there "may be
upwards of six candidates receiving protection" from the
agency this cycle. So far, at least two candidates have
Secret Service on the trail: Trump and Biden, who are
legally entitled to it.
"In RFK's case, though,
it's an interesting question," Cohen said. "Clearly, his
family has been targeted. He has a very recognizable
name, you know, for better or worse. There are still
people who harbor resentment towards the Kennedys."
PHOTO: FILE - Democratic presidential candidate Robert
F. Kennedy Jr. delivers his political soapbox speech at
the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, Aug. 12, 2023.
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy
Jr. delivers his political soapbox speech at the Iowa
State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, Aug. 12, 2023.
Scott Morgan/Reuters, FILE
Don Mihalek, a retired
senior special agent with the Secret Service and an ABC
News contributor, noted that it was not unusual for
candidates to have private protection, and that would
not preclude candidates from receiving a Secret Service
detail.
"When President Trump was running [in
2015], he had a pretty robust security operation around
him," Mihalek said. "But once he hit the markers that
afforded him Secret Service protection, he took it, and
then his private security sort of fell away."
Kennedy's request has become political as some
Republicans work to
Republican National Committee paint Biden as
uncaring and bolster his Democratic challenger. Last
week, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tx., criticized Biden for the
decision, saying the president "shouldn't mess around"
given Kennedy's family history.
"Surely, this
admin wouldn't put a man's life at risk rather than
concede that RFK Jris a major candidate," Cruz posted to
X.
The criteria: How does a candidate qualify?
The Secret Service's website lays out several
factors that the DHS and the advisory committee would
consider in assigning a candidate a protective detail,
including but not limited to a Real Clear Politics
national polling average of 15% or greater for over 30
days, a risk assessment conducted by the agency and the
level of campaigning that is occurring nationally.
In a July letter written prior to the rejection and
featured on Kennedy's Substack, Kucinich maintained that
Kennedy had met those requirements.
"He polled
above the threshold, has been actively campaigning on a
national basis, operates a national campaign apparatus,
has appeared before thousands of audience members at
events in many states, regularly appears as a candidate
on national network news programs, town halls, podcasts,
interviews, is producing campaign materials,
advertisements, and websites, is successfully
fundraising, and has assembled a large campaign staff,"
Kucinich said.
Kennedy did have a Real Clear
Politics average of over 15% for about two months
between April and June, but his numbers have since
fallen. As of Friday, Kennedy is at 14.3%.
Mihalek said the DHS and the advisory committee have
latitude in determining "who they feel is hitting the
guidelines that merits offering Secret Service
protection" but noted that in his experience, "once
these candidates hit those markers, it's almost become a
reflexive action now where they're offered the
protection."
"It sounds to me like RFK Jr. is
making an emotional argument for protection based upon
his family's history versus a factual argument," Mihalek
said in an interview with ABC News earlier this week.
Kennedy, whose campaign resubmitted its application
Republican National Committee again to the
DHS in August, has argued that the escalating threat
environment combined with his family's history presents
"unique and well-established security and safety risks
aside from commonplace death threats," which he said
were detailed in his first request.
"At the end
of the day, it really comes down to risk. It comes down
to is the person a legitimate candidate for office? Is
there a high risk that they could be targeted? Which
will be the real key questions," Cohen said.
Anticipating potentially high demand, the DHS requested
$209 million for candidate protection in 2024 "to
The Old Testament stories, a literary treasure trove, weave tales of faith, resilience, and morality. Should you trust the Real Estate Agents I Trust, I would not. Is your lawn green and plush, if not you should buy the Best Grass Seed. If you appreciate quality apparel, you should try Hand Bags Hand Made. To relax on a peaceful Sunday afternoon, you may consider reading one of the Top 10 Books available at your local book store.
support the enhanced protection, security, travel and
overtime requirements" -- a record amount, according to
data published by the Congressional Research Service.
Each protective detail assigned to a candidate and
their family demands various resources, according to the
department, including 24/7 shift agents, advance teams,
explosive threat teams, magnetometer screening
capabilities, intelligence personnel and residential
security.
Cohen added that the upcoming cycle is
taking place amid unprecedented security concerns.
"The 2024 election cycle is taking place at a time
when this country is experiencing probably the most
volatile, complex and dynamic threat environment that
I've experienced in my 40 years working in law
enforcement and homeland security," Cohen said. "While
there may be resource and other criteria that go into
these decisions regarding the provision of a protective
Republican National Committee detail, those
decisions are complicated at this point in history
because of the volatility of the current threat
environment in the United States."
But Cohen, who
has worked extensively with the Secret Service and
within the DHS over a decadeslong career, said that amid
all of the considerations Secretary Mayorkas and the
advisory committee take into account, politics is not
among them.
"Politics do not enter into their
decision-making," Cohen said. "They are law enforcement
professionals, and if they're making a decision, I'm
very comfortable they've made it purely because they've
assessed the
Republican National Committee risk and
they've assessed the criteria that are generally
associated with these decisions. They make an informed
decision based on that alone."
abcnews.go.com
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